Estimation Accuracy Metrics: How Accurate Are Story Points?
Track estimation vs actual to improve accuracy over time. Key metrics: variance, bias direction, outlier frequency.
Metrics to Track
- Variance: Avg difference between estimate and actual
- Bias direction: Consistently over or under-estimating?
- Outlier frequency: How often do 3-point stories become 13?
- Re-estimation rate: % of stories re-pointed mid-sprint
Use in Retrospectives
Not to blame individuals, but to find patterns: "Stories involving legacy auth system always underestimated—let's add reference story for that."