Tracking Sprint Velocity Accurately: Historical Estimation Reference
Velocity = completed story points per sprint. But only accurate if you track consistently and account for outliers.
Common Velocity Tracking Mistakes
- Counting partially complete stories
- Not accounting for sprint length variance (holidays, PTO)
- Including spikes in velocity calculation
- Cherry-picking high-velocity sprints for forecasts
Accurate Velocity Calculation
- Track last 5-7 sprints (rolling window)
- Only count "Done" stories (per Definition of Done)
- Exclude outlier sprints (team offsite, major incident)
- Normalize for team capacity changes (new hires, departures)
- Use median, not average (resistant to outliers)
Alignlee auto-tracks velocity across sessions for historical reference.