Transcript
Five devs. One story: "As a customer, I can download my invoices as PDF." Everyone votes in private.
All cards are revealed at once: 5, 5, 8, 13 and 3. A spread from 3 to 13. The plain average is 6.8.
Every vote carries a confidence. Dana voted 13 but is only 20% confident. Alex 90%, Bea 80%, Chris 40%, Eli 70%.
Low-confidence votes count for less. The confidence-weighted estimate is 5.9, not 6.8.
Free planning poker. No signup, unlimited participants, auto-reveal at 50%, meeting minutes export (.md).
Alignlee. Create a room. Share the link. Estimate.
The math behind the 5.9
Each vote is weighted by 2^((confidence − 50) / 50), so a 100% confident vote counts twice as much as a 50% vote and four times as much as a 0% vote. Dana's 13 at 20% confidence gets a weight of about 0.66, while Alex's 5 at 90% gets about 1.74. The plain average of 5, 5, 8, 13 and 3 is 6.8; the confidence-weighted average is about 5.9.
The number is a discussion aid, not an answer. The full step-by-step walkthrough is in the planning poker worked example. For the 1 to 5 sprint confidence vote, watch the Confidence Pulse video.